On September 16th, the Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% -4.00%, with a unanimous vote of 12 to 0. This is the first rate hike since July 2023. The dot plotOn September 16th, the Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% -4.00%, with a unanimous vote of 12 to 0. This is the first rate hike since July 2023. The dot plot
U.S. Stocks Weekly Report Sep 12–Sep 17 | Fed Raises Rates by 25 Basis Points, Goldman Sachs Says "Not Economically Necessary," S&P Year-End Target Remains at 8,000
On September 16th, the Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% -4.00%, with a unanimous vote of 12 to 0. This is the first rate hike since July 2023. The dot plot shows that 16 of the 18 officials who submitted forecasts believe that the last two meetings of the year will add at least one more.
According to intuition, the market should be more afraid. But the result is the opposite: VIX fell from 17.71 to 15.44, while falling below the 50-day moving average (16.19) and the 200-day moving average (18.10). On September 16th, the Dow Jones Industrial Average did fall by 1.2%, but by the weekend, the panic was even lower than before the meeting.
The five targets focused on this week are all chip stocks. They are in the same sector and affected by the same interest rate curve. However, after spreading out the 52-week position, the highest AMD is at 90.8%, and the lowest AVGO is only 28.0% - a difference of 62.8 percentage points. This weekly report is about this gap.
Key sectors and targets of this week
Macro overview
Three major macro signals this week:
01 | The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points To 3.75% -4.00%, 12 votes to 0 unanimously passed, marking the first rate hike since July 2023. The dot plot shows that 16 of the 18 officials who submitted forecasts believe that the last two meetings of the year will add at least one more; 12 expect exactly one more, 4 expect twice, and only 2 believe that no more will be added. Warsh continued the practice of the first meeting in June and did not submit personal forecasts this time.
02 | Institutional views differ but the direction is consistent . Goldman Sachs changed its expectation from "stay put" to a 25 basis point interest rate hike before the meeting, while stating that it is economically unnecessary and the reasons are weak, believing that policy makers do not want to surprise the fully priced market; Citigroup strategist Scott Chronert believes that a significant interest rate hike is actually a "bullish shock" to the stock market. The two year-end S & P 500 targets are 8,000 and 8,100, respectively.
03 | Consumption is much stronger than expected . Retail sales in August increased by 1.2% month-on-month, far exceeding the market's expected 0.7% -0.8%, with a total of $773.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.0%; excluding gas stations, it still increased by 1.1%, online sales increased by 2.6%, and core cgroup increased by 1.4% (expected to be about 0.5%). After the interest rate hike, VIX fell from 17.71 to 15.44, breaking through the 50-day and 200-day moving averages; crude oil remained above $101.
AI computing power/GPU
NVIDIA (NVDA) | + 0.5% this week · + 17.6% this year
Almost stagnant for a week. On September 17th, it rose 2.5% in a single day, but the trading volume was only 0.65 times the recent monthly average, which was the most obvious shrinking among the several levels focused on this week. The 52-week position was 76.2%, with a one-year range of 164.27-236.54 dollars.
The meaning of shrinking volume consolidation is that funds have neither left nor gone up the ante. In an environment where interest rates have just been raised and the dot plot points to another increase, this state itself is a statement - not moving for now, waiting for the next demand-side data.
AMD | + 5.6% this week · + 154.5% this year
Beta 2.476, the highest among several levels of focus this week. On September 17th, it rose by 6.4% in a single day, with a cumulative increase of 5.6% this week. The 52-week position has reached 90.8%, close to the one-year high of 584.73 dollars. The trading volume is 1.03 times, which is a moderate increase rather than a rush.
Since the beginning of this year, the cumulative increase has been 154.5%. A stock with a Beta close to two and a half times had the highest increase in the week when the interest rate hike was implemented. This matter will be analyzed separately later.
Semiconductor/Foundry & Custom Chips
Intel (INTC) | + 5.7% this week · + 194.9% this year
The weekly increase during the interest rate hike ranked first among the several categories focused on this week. On September 17th, it rose by 7.7% in a single day, with trading volume expanding to 1.26 times the monthly average, making it the only category with significant volume increase. The 52-week position is 70.5%, with a one-year range of 28.73-142.35 dollars and a Beta of 2.231.
Cumulative increase of 194.9% since the beginning of this year, with a market value of approximately 548.8 billion US dollars.
Broadcom (AVGO) | -4.6% this week · + 0.1% this year
This week's closing price fell by 4.6%, almost unchanged this year (+ 0.1%). On September 17th, it rose by 2.3% in a single day, with a trading volume of 0.91 times.
The real difference lies in the location: the 52-week position is only 28.0%, with a one-year range of 289.96-495 dollars, and the current price of 347.3 dollars is still near the lower edge. As a major supplier of AI customized chips and a company with a market value of about 1.65 trillion dollars, it is completely different from AMD's situation during the same period.
Storage
Micron (MU) | 0.0% this week · + 236% this year
This week closed flat. On September 17th, it rose 5.5% in a single day, and at the 52nd week position, it was 74.8%. The one-year range is 154.65 dollars - $1,255, with a beta of 2.222.
However, the trading volume is only 0.49 times the monthly average, shrinking more fiercely than other levels during the same period. Before the September 30th financial report, funds were clearly waiting. Storage is the closest link to actual shipments in the AI chain, and the reference value of this financial report is higher than any valuation discussion.
Focus on 02 stocks
AMD: During the week of interest rate hikes, the highest beta level rose the most
The week the Fed raised interest rates, the stocks with the highest Beta rose the most - which in itself is worth stopping and thinking about.
AMD's Beta is 2.476, which means its magnification of market fluctuations is close to two and a half times. Textbooks would say that interest rate hikes suppress high Beta assets. But it rose 5.6% this week, 6.4% in a single day on September 17th, and stood at 90.8% at the 52-week position.
Goldman Sachs' statement provides an explanation: the pullback caused by interest rate hikes will be short-lived because companies are making healthy profits. In other words, what the market is digesting this week is not "higher interest rates", but "uncertainty is gone". Before the decision, no one knows if there will be an increase, but after the decision, at least they know.
The elasticity of high beta during panic relief and its lethality during panic escalation are two sides of the same coefficient. This also means that if PCE makes the timing of "one more time within the year" uncertain again, the same coefficient will work in the opposite direction.
Broadcom (AVGO): Same chip, 62.8 percentage points difference in position
First, let's look at a fact that goes against intuition: AVGO is the second largest company in terms of market value and the main supplier of AI customized chips among the several categories focused this week, but its 52-week position is only 28.0%.
The annual range is 289.96 dollars to 495 dollars, with a current price of 347.3 dollars. In the same week, AMD stood at 90.8%, MU stood at 74.8%, NVDA stood at 76.2%, INTC stood at 70.5%, and AVGO was still near the lower edge of its own range. The numbers this year are more direct: AMD + 154.5%, AVGO + 0.1%.
This ruler can be directly applied to any target. A high position represents that the market has already taken good news into account, and the margin for error in the next financial report is small; a low position represents that the disagreement has not been resolved, which may be an opportunity or someone has seen the problem earlier than you.
The two situations are different and should not be treated with the same set of positioning.
03 Explore this week
Discussion 1: On the day when the interest rate hike really landed, the panic index fell below two moving averages
The first interest rate hike since July 2023, and the dot plot suggests another hike within the year. Based on intuition, the market should be more afraid.
· The data is reversed : VIX fell from 17.71 to 15.44, while falling below the 50-day moving average of 16.19 and the 200-day moving average of 18.10. The Dow did drop 1.2% on September 16, but the panic was even lower over the weekend.
· Institutional explanation : Citigroup strategist Scott Chronert believes that a sharp interest rate hike is a "bullish shock" to the stock market; Goldman Sachs believes that the pullback caused by interest rate hikes will be very short-lived, because corporate profits are healthy.
· How to use it next time : The market is never just afraid of interest rates themselves, but also the "not knowing if it will" thing. The latter was eliminated this week. So before the next major event, it is worth asking two separate questions - whether the direction is uncertain or the magnitude is uncertain. The impact of the two on volatility is different.
Discussion 2: Both are chip stocks, but the position difference is 62.8 percentage points
This week's focus is all on chips, it seems that the same batch of funds are doing the same thing.
· Spread out the 52-week position : AMD 90.8%, NVDA 76.2%, MU 74.8%, INTC 70.5%, AVGO 28.0%. The difference between the highest and lowest is 62.8 percentage points.
· Volume is also differentiated : INTC volume to 1.26 times, AMD 1.03 times, AVGO 0.91 times, NVDA 0.65 times, MU is only 0.49 times. The rising few grades are in volume, and the sideways few grades are in shrinking volume - the choice of funds is very clear.
· How to use it next time : "The same sector" does not mean "the same situation". When you are optimistic about a theme, first calculate the position and volume of each level inside, and you will find that some have already run more than half, and some are still in the same place. The position determines whether you are facing the risk of chasing highs or the uncertainty of the bottom of the range.
Key calendar for next week
Date | Type | Event | Focus on |
9/22 (Tuesday) | Data | Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index | Next week is a clear data week , there is no first-level indicator; the manufacturing sub-item can see how high oil prices are transmitted to the production side |
9/24 (Thursday) | Data | New home sales, current account | With interest rates just raised, the housing market is the most directly under pressure; new home sales are the fastest window to observe the transmission speed of interest rate hikes |
9/25 (Friday) | Data | Durable goods orders, Mickey consumer confidence | Retail sales in August just increased by 1.2%. These two data are cross-validation - whether the strong consumption is real demand or the amount pushed up by oil prices |
9/29-30 (Tuesday to Wednesday) | Data | Consumer confidence, GDP, personal income, and expenditure | Personal income and expenditure contain the PCE price index , which is the Fed's most important inflation measure. The dot plot says there will be another one within the year, and this data will directly affect the timing of that one |
9/30 (Wednesday) | Financial report | Micron (MU) Quarterly Results | This week's focus is on the only one with financial reports. MU's volume this week is only 0.49 times, NVDA is 0.65 times, and funds are waiting for this data to verify the demand side |
The above dates are all Eastern Time (ET), and the financial report date is subject to the company's announcement.
The data density next week is significantly lower than this week. The real risks are concentrated in the PCE from September 29th to 30th and Micron's financial report from September 30th. The former determines the timing of the interest rate hike this year, while the latter verifies whether the demand for AI has really cooled down.
MEXC stock regular investment function has been launched.
After setting up, it automatically buys US stocks regularly, without the need to monitor the market or time, gradually accumulating long-term assets. In an environment where the interest rate path is not yet clear and the dot plot points to another time within the year, regular investment is a way to reduce timing pressure.
Access path: US Stock Account > Market > Stock Investment
This week's Q & A
Why did the Federal Reserve raise interest rates when inflation was only 3.4%?
Because 3.4% is still a significant distance away from the 2% target, and the direction has not improved. Warsh and other FOMC officials stated that a clear deflationary trend is needed to maintain interest rates unchanged. August retail sales increased by 1.2% month-on-month, far exceeding expectations, indicating that the demand side has not been suppressed by the previous high interest rates - under this combination, the reason for staying put is weaker than raising interest rates.
Q2: Goldman Sachs said "there is no economic need", why is the end-of-year S & P target still 8,000?
These two things are not contradictory. Goldman Sachs' judgment is that raising interest rates has weak economic reasons, but policy makers do not want to surprise the fully priced market, so they will raise it. The pullback caused by raising interest rates will be short-lived because corporate profits are healthy. In other words, it is bearish on the necessity of this decision, but not bearish on corporate profits. The index target reflects the latter.
Q3: Why did AMD, which has the highest beta, rise the most during the interest rate hike week?
Because what was eliminated this week was uncertainty, not interest rates. Before the decision, the market didn't know if it would increase; after the decision, at least it knew. The meaning of high beta is "a large magnification of market sentiment". It bounces the most fiercely when sentiment turns good, and falls the most fiercely when sentiment turns bad - both sides of the same coefficient. This does not mean that high beta will necessarily have an advantage in the interest rate hike cycle.
Q4: How to calculate the position at 52 weeks? Why should we look at it?
The formula is (current price - lowest in a year) ÷ (highest in a year - lowest in a year) × 100. It only describes the relative position of the current price within its own one-year range, not a quality evaluation. The reason for looking at it is: the increase tells you what happened today, and the position tells you where you stand now. This week's five levels are all chip stocks, with positions ranging from 90.8% to 28.0%, indicating that "same sector" does not mean "same situation".
Q5: AVGO only rose 0.1% this year, is it lagging behind or an opportunity?
This weekly report does not provide answers, only judgment materials. A low position (28.0% position in 52 weeks) may represent unresolved differences or someone who saw the problem earlier than you; a high position (90.8% for AMD) may represent established trends or compressed fault tolerance. To distinguish between these two situations, what is needed is financial report and order data, not the position itself. Micron's financial report on September 30th is the first reference sample for this quarter.
Disclaimer : This content is for market information and education reference only, and does not constitute any investment advice. The stocks in the article are all publicly discussed in the market and do not represent the recommendation or opinion of MEXC. Investment involves risks, please judge carefully by yourself. The rise and fall of individual stocks is public market information, subject to the final market situation. This information is provided by the MEXC US stock spot team. The copyright of this week's report belongs to MEXC, please indicate the source when reprinting.
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