One crypto analyst is making a long-term case against XRP, arguing that while the token could still rise in dollar terms, it may continue to lag behind Bitcoin over the rest of the decade.
After studying four major XRP market cycles and comparing them with Bitcoin’s performance, the analyst concluded that XRP could underperform Bitcoin by roughly 45% by March 2030.
Four Cycles, One Recurring Pattern
According to the analyst, XRP’s history reveals a consistent pattern across multiple cycles.
Cycle 1: Early XRP Outperformance
During XRP’s early years, the token dramatically outperformed Bitcoin as investors rushed into altcoins for the first time. XRP quickly became one of the largest cryptocurrencies in the market. However, those gains eventually faded, and Bitcoin regained the upper hand.
Cycle 2: Recovery and Another Surge
XRP staged another major rally during the next market cycle as adoption narratives gained traction and market sentiment improved. Once again, XRP outperformed for a period before slipping back and losing momentum against Bitcoin.
Cycle 3: Long Consolidation Phase
This cycle looked very different. XRP spent years underperforming as regulatory uncertainty and slower growth weighed on sentiment. While painful for holders, the analyst notes that these weaker periods historically set the stage for future recoveries.
Cycle 4: Recent Outperformance
The latest cycle has been more favorable. XRP benefited from improving regulatory clarity, institutional interest, and ETF-related speculation. Over roughly the last four years, XRP slightly outperformed Bitcoin. However, historically, such outperformance has often been followed by weaker relative returns.
XRP Price Target: $3.62 by 2028
Using XRP’s historical cycle behavior measured in U.S. dollars, the analyst’s model projects a potential price target of $3.62 by May 2028. That would place XRP near previous cycle highs, although the model does not predict how the token gets there.
Can XRP Keep Up With Bitcoin?
The analyst thinks XRP’s biggest challenge is supply growth. Over the past decade, XRP’s circulating supply expanded by roughly 77%, or about 5.9% annually. Bitcoin’s supply grew only 28% over the same period and continues to slow after each halving.
Because more XRP enters circulation each year, demand must grow faster to support long-term outperformance. Based on historical cycle data and supply dynamics, the analyst expects XRP to appreciate in dollar terms but still underperform Bitcoin by about 45% by 2030, making BTC the stronger long-term bet unless XRP adoption accelerates significantly.
