Is Robinhood (HOOD) Stock Still a Buy After Missing Q1 Estimates?

TLDR

• Robinhood stock fell about 3% to $73.64, with its 52-week high sitting at $153.86.
• Q1 2025 earnings missed estimates — EPS came in at $0.38 vs the $0.39 expected, and revenue of $1.07B fell short of the $1.14B forecast.
• The company is pushing into prediction markets, with a Q4 2025 run-rate projected at $300M and volumes expected to triple quarter over quarter.
• Net deposits grew at a 28% annualized rate (excluding acquisitions), and institutional ownership now stands at 93.27%.
• Director Baiju Bhatt sold $5M worth of stock on May 20th, part of a broader $40.9M in insider sales over the past three months.

Robinhood Markets (HOOD) stock dropped roughly 3% on Friday to $73.64, sitting well off its 52-week high of $153.86. The move came as investors weighed a mixed earnings print alongside a wider push by the company into new business lines.

Robinhood Markets, Inc., HOOD

The most recent quarterly results, reported April 28th, showed revenue of $1.07 billion — up 15.1% year over year but short of the $1.14 billion analysts had expected. EPS came in at $0.38, just a penny below the $0.39 consensus. It’s not a disaster, but it’s not what the market wanted to see.

That said, the longer-term growth story Robinhood is building is a busy one.

Prediction Markets Take Center Stage

The company’s move into prediction markets has drawn the most attention from analysts. Robinhood introduced sports betting contracts and event-based markets, with analysts projecting a Q4 2025 run-rate of $300 million for that segment — with volumes expected to triple quarter over quarter.

Crucially, survey data from December 2025 showed that 50% of Robinhood users planned to fund prediction market activity with fresh capital, rather than shifting existing balances. That distinction matters: it means new money coming onto the platform, not just money moving around inside it.

Economic and political events were the most popular categories, showing the company has found real engagement among its user base.

Robinhood also expanded its AI assistant, Cortex, to help users navigate what is becoming an increasingly complex product lineup — options, crypto, and now prediction markets.

Expansion and Institutional Moves

In December 2025, Robinhood acquired two Indonesian firms, marking its first push into Asian markets. Near-term financial impact is expected to be minimal, but the move puts it in front of a growing retail investor population in the region.

On the institutional side, PNC Financial Services increased its stake in HOOD by 86.2% in Q4, bringing its total holding to 100,849 shares worth around $11.4 million. Several other firms also added to or initiated positions. Institutions now own 93.27% of the company’s stock.

Net deposits grew at a 28% annualized rate through December 2025 (excluding the TradePMR acquisition), a strong signal that customers are still bringing assets to the platform.

Analyst sentiment remains broadly positive. The consensus rating is “Moderate Buy” with an average price target of $107.88, though targets have been cut in recent months — Truist dropped its target from $120 to $100 in April, and Jefferies trimmed its target to $84.

On the insider side, Director Baiju Bhatt sold $5.08 million worth of stock on May 20th at an average price of $75.38, under a pre-arranged 10b5-1 plan. Total insider sales over the past three months reached $40.9 million.

The company carries a P/E of 35.58 and a beta of 2.29, meaning it moves more than twice as much as the broader market. Its 52-week range of $62.63 to $153.86 reflects just how much the stock has moved — and how far it has fallen from last year’s highs.

Analysts project full-year 2025 EPS of $1.95, with consensus estimates for fiscal 2026 ranging from $2.15 to $3.28.

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