The Week Ahead: Retail Earnings and Iran Deal Could Move Markets — Here’s What Investors Are Watching

TLDR

• The S&P 500 posted eight straight weeks of gains, with the Dow eyeing 51,000 for the first time
• Key earnings this week from Dell, Marvell, Salesforce, Dollar Tree, Burlington, Gap, and Best Buy
• Q1 earnings growth tracked at 26% year over year, the highest since 2021
• President Trump said an Iran deal covering the Strait of Hormuz has been “largely negotiated”
• Tech companies are framing AI-driven layoffs as innovation rather than cost-cutting

The stock market heads into the final week of May on solid ground. The S&P 500 is holding near 7,500, and investors are shifting from earnings season into a period of digesting data and watching for surprises.

Markets are closed Monday for Memorial Day, leaving a four-day trading week packed with earnings reports and economic data.

Retailers Take Center Stage

Several major retailers are set to report first-quarter results this week. Dollar Tree, Burlington Stores, Gap, and American Eagle Outfitters are all on the schedule.

Investors want to know how lower-income consumers are holding up under pressure from high gas prices and rising inflation. Dollar stores in particular will be watched for signs that their core shoppers are pulling back.

Best Buy also reports Wednesday. The retailer’s earnings call will be one of the first led by incoming CEO Jason Bonfig, making it a closely watched appearance.

Last week gave a mixed picture from retail. Walmart issued a soft near-term forecast while keeping its full-year outlook. Target beat expectations and raised guidance. Despite that, shares of both fell.

Better news came from apparel. VF Corp, Amer Sports, and Ralph Lauren all posted strong numbers and saw their stocks rise.

AI Stocks Back in Focus

Wednesday brings results from Marvell Technology, which is up 120% so far this year. Salesforce also reports that day, though it has struggled to ride the AI wave and its shares are still down more than 30% from a year ago.

Dell Technologies reports Thursday. Executives have previously described the AI opportunity as transforming the business, and investors will be listening for whether that confidence holds.

Synopsys rounds out the AI-linked names, reporting Wednesday after the bell. The stock got a boost earlier this year when activist investor Elliott Investment Management disclosed a stake.

These results follow Nvidia’s earnings last week, which showed continued strength in AI infrastructure spending. Overall earnings growth for the quarter tracked at 26% year over year according to Bank of America, the strongest pace since 2021.

Bank of America analyst Savita Subramanian noted that while executives struck a cautious tone on calls, guidance came in above average and well above historical trends.

Iran Deal and Economic Data

President Trump said Saturday that a deal with Iran had been “largely negotiated” and would be announced soon. The agreement reportedly includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a key global shipping route that has been under strain since the outbreak of conflict earlier this year.

Markets have reacted to Iran headlines before, only to see deals fall through. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has urged caution, saying it is not over until it is over.

On the economic side, the Conference Board releases its Consumer Confidence Index on Tuesday. The Personal Consumption Expenditures index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, comes out Thursday.

Consumer confidence dipped at the University of Michigan last week, though Americans have continued spending despite feeling downbeat — a pattern that has held longer than many expected.

Tech layoffs also remain in the news. Companies including Meta are framing job cuts as AI-driven transformation rather than simple cost reduction. Overall layoff numbers remain low, but the trend is being watched closely as AI adoption spreads beyond early adopters in the tech sector.

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