Quantum Computing Could Threaten Bitcoin by 2030

• Report warns quantum computers may break blockchain cryptography by 2033.
• Researchers say 6.9M Bitcoin may already be exposed to future quantum attacks.
• NEAR Protocol is preparing post-quantum upgrades to reduce long-term cryptographic risks.

Project Eleven’s blockchain security report warns that quantum computing could threaten major crypto networks, including Bitcoin, within the next decade. In response, NEAR Protocol has started integrating post-quantum cryptography into its ecosystem.

Quantum Computing Concerns Grow Across Crypto

The report, titled “The Quantum Threat to Blockchains – 2026 Report,” said current blockchain cryptography used by Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana may become vulnerable as early as 2030 to 2033. Project Eleven referred to the potential arrival of a machine capable of breaking current encryption as “Q-Day.” 

Also, the project noted that breakthroughs in quantum hardware, error correction, and algorithm efficiency have also accelerated development beyond earlier expectations. The researchers added that these advances could reduce the computational resources needed to break encryption. 

To prevent this threat, the report argued that blockchains must migrate to post-quantum cryptography urgently because decentralized networks may require years to coordinate protocol upgrades, wallet migrations, and validator changes. 

Why Blockchains Face Unique Risks

In particular, the researchers explained why blockchains are at risk, citing Shor’s algorithm as the biggest threat. For context, the algorithm can break RSA, ECDSA, and other elliptic-curve cryptographic systems used across blockchain networks. 

Unlike traditional financial systems, blockchain networks permanently expose transaction histories and public keys on-chain. The report warned that attackers would not need to steal sensitive data later because blockchain ledgers already contain the information required for future attacks.

33% of Bitcoin Already Exposed 

The researchers also estimated that about 6.9 million Bitcoin, or roughly 33% of the circulating supply, is already exposed to future quantum attacks because associated public keys have appeared on-chain. 

Vulnerable wallets include reused Bitcoin addresses, older Pay-to-Public-Key outputs, Taproot outputs, and spent SegWit addresses. 

The report also said that, contrary to public opinion, multisignature wallets would not stop attackers because each signer’s cryptographic key could still be recovered independently. 

Hardware wallets also do not eliminate the threat, as the attack targets publicly exposed on-chain keys rather than the wallet device itself. 

NEAR Moves Toward Post-Quantum Security

Elsewhere, NEAR Protocol said it is preparing post-quantum upgrades designed to reduce some of these long-term risks.

The company said its account structure differs from Bitcoin and Ethereum because accounts are separated from the cryptographic keys controlling them. 

Instead of relying on a permanently fixed keypair, NEAR accounts use rotatable access keys that allow users to upgrade signing systems without abandoning existing accounts.

NEAR plans to integrate FIPS-204, also known as ML-DSA, as its first post-quantum signing standard. ML-DSA is a lattice-based cryptographic system approved by the U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology for post-quantum security.

The network said users will eventually be able to migrate to quantum-safe signing through a single transaction once the feature becomes available.

Related: Grayscale Rejects Quantum Threat as Driver of Bitcoin Decline