Toncoin (TON) Could Be Massive, But Investors Should Stay Careful

TLDR

• Telegram will replace the TON Foundation as the main force behind TON and become its largest validator
• TON has $752 million in stablecoins and $39.7 million in 24-hour DEX volume, showing real chain activity
• Despite activity, 24-hour chain fees are only around $8,086, pointing to weak fee capture relative to its size
• The TON Believers Fund is unlocking roughly 36.59 million TON per month, with ~$75 million due in the next release alone
• Validators need at least 300,000 TON to participate, and Telegram’s growing role raises decentralization concerns

Toncoin is one of the few crypto projects that does not have to fight for distribution. Most blockchains spend years trying to attract users through marketing, grants, and incentives. TON has a different path.

TON Wallet is built directly into Telegram. It is self-custodial, meaning users hold their own keys while using a simple mobile interface. That combination of accessibility and user control is rare in crypto.

Telegram has over one billion registered users. That gives TON a potential audience that most blockchain projects can only dream of.

In May 2026, Telegram founder Pavel Durov announced that Telegram would replace the TON Foundation as the primary driving force behind the network. Telegram will also become its largest validator.

That announcement brought renewed attention to TON and reinforced the idea that the two platforms are becoming more tightly connected.

What the On-Chain Data Shows

DeFiLlama data shows roughly $752 million in stablecoins sitting on the TON chain. The network is also seeing about $39.7 million in 24-hour DEX volume and around $1.48 million in 24-hour perpetuals volume.

Those numbers show that developers and users are choosing TON. Liquidity is moving onto the chain, and trading activity is real.

However, 24-hour chain fees sit at only about $8,086, with chain revenue near $4,043. For a network with a market cap between $5.6 billion and $5.7 billion, that fee generation is low.

Fee capture matters because it reflects how much economic value the network is actually keeping. High activity with low fees can mean users are transacting, but the network is not yet monetizing that usage effectively.

Token Unlocks and Validator Concentration

CoinGecko shows roughly 2.7 billion TON currently in circulation. TON’s original whitepaper set an initial supply cap of 5 billion, with gradual increases through validator rewards.

The TON Believers Fund is a separate concern. According to Messari, the fund unlocks approximately 36.59 million TON each month. Around 1.098 billion TON remain to be released through approximately October 2028.

DeFiLlama’s unlock tracker puts the next scheduled release at roughly $75 million in value. That level of consistent supply entering the market creates ongoing sell pressure.

On the validator side, the TON network requires a minimum of 300,000 TON to participate. Effective thresholds in practice are reported to be higher.

With Telegram now set to become the largest validator, the network is becoming more centralized around a single entity. That can improve coordination and reliability, but it moves the network further from decentralization.

Telegram becoming TON’s largest validator is the most recent development shaping how investors and developers are assessing the network’s direction.

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