'Clear signal of defiance' shows Trump attacks are backfiring: analyst

The appointment of a new ayatollah shortly after the death of Ali Khamenei highlights a major shortcoming in Donald Trump's plot for Iranian regime change, an analyst wrote Tuesday.

Despite the president's team carrying out a series of strikes against the Middle Eastern country earlier this month, the only changes made so far, according to CNN analyst Stephen Collinson, are beneficial to Iran. Trump may have succeeded in removing the country's former head, but his replacement, Collinson believes, is far worse for the US and the current administration.

He wrote, "No one from the outside can know its true state after days of aerial pounding of government facilities and heavy loss of life.

"But so far, the operation has succeeded only in replacing an aged supreme leader — who was already close to his eternal rest and had no succession plan — with a younger version with the same last name.

"The choice of Mojtaba Khamenei to succeed his martyred father as supreme leader was a signal of defiance from the theocracy and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps that rule Iran with an iron fist. It remains unclear how Khamenei will be able to consolidate power in such extreme circumstances."

Trump has also failed to take into account the activity needed from the Iranian people to successfully topple and ultimately replace the regime, Collinson argued.

"There’s no outward sign that the uprising of Iranians against their corrupt and repressive rulers that Trump sought to trigger is about to materialize," he wrote. "Perhaps US and Israeli attacks on Iranian economic and energy infrastructure could so weaken the regime’s foundation that a revolt could materialize in the months and years ahead, even if the clerics cling on for now.

"But this requires Iranian civilians taking to the streets against ruthless security forces pining for revenge following the US onslaught.

"Only weeks ago, thousands were killed in a previous thwarted uprising. It seems just as likely that the unintended result of the war will be more repression rather than a flowering of freedom."

Trump may also be forced to play his hand sooner than he had hoped. Collinson wrote, "Trump also faces pressing strategic dilemmas. Will he use force to try to open the Strait of Hormuz — the world’s vital oil conduit, which has been all but closed by Iran?

"And would the survival of the regime lead to an almost permanent state of simmering warfare between the US and Israel and Iran that requires regular escalations to prevent the Islamic Republic rebuilding its threat?"