Rigetti (RGTI) Stock; Slides 8.7% as Holiday Thin Trading Hits Quantum Name

TLDRs;

• Rigetti shares fell 8.7% Friday as thin holiday trading and low liquidity amplified quantum stock volatility.
• Analysts debate valuation and roadmap, balancing high technical potential against limited current revenue and profitability concerns.
• Institutional investors, including Osaic Holdings, are increasing stakes, highlighting growing market interest despite speculative trading risks.
• Upcoming earnings, contract deliveries, and milestone updates could trigger sharp moves when markets reopen Monday.

Rigetti Computing, Inc. (NASDAQ: RGTI) saw shares decline sharply on Friday, ending the session at $22.38, down $2.13, or 8.7%, after trading in a $22.33–$24.37 range.

Late indications suggested a minor rebound to $22.44 in after-hours activity. With U.S. markets closed Saturday, the focus shifts to how liquidity, positioning, and sentiment may influence the next session.

The decline was not driven by company-specific announcements but rather by two key factors: thin, holiday-affected liquidity and a quiet broader market. Fewer institutional traders during the post-Christmas period amplified the impact of smaller trades, creating a “holiday gap” effect where high-beta names like Rigetti can swing wildly. Meanwhile, the broader market remained near record territory, with investors weighing year-end positioning and potential rate cuts.

Rigetti Computing, Inc., RGTI

Market Debates Valuation Versus Momentum

Over the past two days, RGTI’s narrative has been dominated by analyst discussion and market positioning rather than new company filings. Coverage highlighted both bullish and cautious perspectives.

Wedbush recently initiated coverage with an Outperform rating and a $35 target, while Mizuho set a $50 target, emphasizing long-term quantum computing potential. Conversely, some analysts underscored the company’s current unprofitability and uneven revenue trends.

This divergence has created a situation where the market is effectively “arguing with itself” over Rigetti’s proper valuation, particularly in the context of speculative year-end trading. Investors are balancing excitement over quantum milestones against the reality of limited current revenue.

Growing Institutional Activity

Even amid volatility, institutional investors are showing continued interest. Osaic Holdings increased its stake by 119.2%, taking ownership of approximately 260,000 shares, while large managers such as Vanguard, BlackRock, and several hedge funds have maintained positions in the company.

While these filings do not necessarily reflect immediate trading actions, they indicate that Rigetti has become sufficiently “crowded” to attract both institutional support and speculative trading, increasing the potential for sharp price swings around news, contracts, or milestone announcements.

The Bull-Bear Balance

Rigetti’s technical roadmap remains a major focus. CEO Subodh Kulkarni confirmed the company is on track to deliver a 100+ qubit system by the end of 2025, with a 150+ qubit system targeted for late 2026 and a 1,000+ qubit system by the end of 2027.

Alongside technical progress, early commercial orders for two 9-qubit Novera systems totaling $5.7 million are expected to be delivered in the first half of 2026.

Despite these developments, the company remains unprofitable, and current revenue is modest relative to its market capitalization. High short interest, around 12.5% of the public float, adds another layer of potential volatility, with rapid rallies or drops potentially triggering short-covering or momentum-driven exits.

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