PHL stocks may stay weak amid war-driven risks

PHILIPPINE STOCKS may remain under pressure this week as investors await developments in talks between the United States and Iran and weigh growing inflation concerns.

On Friday, the Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) plunged by 1.55% or 91.18 points to close at 5,768.76, while the broader all shares index went down by 0.81% or 26.98 points to 3,280.97.

This was the PSEi’s worst finish in over six months or since it closed at 5,756.66 on Nov. 18, 2025.

Week on week, the benchmark index fell by 192.64 points from May 22’s 5,961.40.

“The bellwether PSEi capitulated below the crucial 5,800 psychological support to close at 5,768.12 as persistent inflation fears, US-Iran conflict flareups, weakening peso, political rifts on the local front, and caution ahead of next week’s latest inflation release, triggered a sell-off,” online brokerage 2TradeAsia.com said in a note on Friday.

“Sentiment has become more bearish as cracks worsen between the US and Iran amid the recent exchange of military force. Ironically, this comes as both undergo negotiations aiming for a peace deal,” Philstocks Financial, Inc. Research Manager Japhet Louis O. Tantiangco said in a Viber message.

He added that the first-quarter financial results of listed companies have underperformed amid weakening Philippine economic prospects, with PSEi members’ average revenue and net income growth was at 8.4% and 4.9% respectively, slower 10.8% and 13.3% a year ago.

“With the second quarter still bearing the economic consequences of the Middle East conflict, corporate performance may continue to grow weaker.”

For this week, Mr. Tantiangco said the market will continue to take cues from developments between the US and Iran, as the situation remains fragile despite ongoing negotiations.

Philippine May inflation data scheduled for release on Friday (June 5) would also be a key driver “as it would give clues on the direction of the country’s household consumption (the economy’s main engine) and the BSP’s (Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas) policy outlook. An inflation print which remains elevated, especially one which exceeds April’s 7.2%, is expected to weigh on the local bourse,” he added.

Following the PSEi’s drop below the 5,800 line, the market may retest this support this week, Mr. Tantiangco said. “If it is able to get back above 5,800, the market’s trading range is seen from 5,800 to 6,000. If it fails to do so however, next support is seen at 5,600.”

For its part, 2TradeAsia.com put the PSEi’s immediate support at 5,800, resistance at 6,050, and secondary resistance at 6,300.

“Geopolitical volatility remains the dominant theme as the US-Iran conflict swings unpredictably between short-lived truces and renewed limited strikes… This pendulum-like pattern has made risk assessment exceptionally difficult, preventing markets from building sustained conviction.” — Alexandria Grace C. Magno