ABN AMRO analysts note EUR/USD has been volatile within a range, driven by shifting expectations on reopening the Strait of Hormuz. They expect elevated Oil prices to persist, weighing on EUR/USD in coming months as the Eurozone relies on energy imports, with a possible move towards 1.14 near term. Later, lower energy prices and a relatively more hawkish European Central Bank (ECB) should lift EUR/USD towards 1.20 by end-2026.
Energy shock and policy divergence
“EUR/USD has moved volatile within a range depending on optimism about reaching an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.”
“Even if a deal is reached, we think will take time for the supply to normalise.”
“Therefore, we think oil prices will remain elevated.”
“It is likely that this will weigh on EUR/USD in the coming months as the euro is dependent on energy imports.”
“So, in the near-term EUR/USD could move towards 1.14.”
“Later in the year we expect lower energy prices.”
“This and a more hawkish ECB compared to the Fed should support EUR/USD higher.”
“We still expect the EUR/USD rate to be 1.20 by the end of 2026.”
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-higher-oil-prices-weigh-before-late-2026-rebound-abn-amro-202605280938
