Intuitive Machines (LUNR) Stock Drops 8% After Q4 Revenue Disappoints

TLDR

• Intuitive Machines reported Q4 revenue of $44.8 million, missing Wall Street’s estimate of $53.7 million
• Operating loss came in at $33.1 million, worse than the expected $12 million loss
• The stock dropped as much as 8.3% in early trading on Thursday
• 2026 guidance of $900 million to $1 billion in revenue beat analyst estimates of $880 million
• The company ended February with a backlog of over $943 million

Intuitive Machines had been on a roll coming into Thursday. The stock was up 12% year to date and 149% over the past 12 months. Then the Q4 numbers dropped.

Intuitive Machines, Inc., LUNR

The Houston-based space company posted Q4 revenue of $44.8 million and an operating loss of $33.1 million. Wall Street had been looking for $53.7 million in revenue and a loss of just $12 million. That gap hit the stock hard, with LUNR falling as much as 8.3% in early trading.

The miss was driven by its key programs — Commercial Lunar Payload Services, Omnibus Multidiscipline Engineering Services III, and Near Space Network Services. Revenue also declined from the same quarter a year ago.

On the positive side, Intuitive Machines did manage a 19% gross margin in Q4, marking continued improvement throughout 2025. Free cash flow improved by $11.7 million year over year, with a total use of $56 million for the full year.

2026 Guidance Beats Estimates

Despite the miss, management issued 2026 guidance that landed above analyst expectations. The company projects revenue of $900 million to $1 billion, with a midpoint of $950 million — ahead of the $880 million Wall Street had forecast. Full-year adjusted EBITDA is also expected to be positive.

CEO Steve Altemus called 2025 “a transformational year,” pointing to the completion of its second lunar mission, expansion into national security space programs, and two major acquisitions: KinetX Aerospace and Lanteris Space Systems.

The Lanteris deal, valued at $800 million, closed in the first quarter of 2026. It positions Intuitive Machines as a vertically integrated space contractor across commercial, civil, and national security markets.

The company also secured a $175 million strategic investment in Q1 2026 to support satellite communications and in-space data processing.

As of the end of February, the combined contract backlog stood at roughly $943 million. Contract wins include support for the Space Development Agency’s Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture and a Missile Defense Agency contract with a ceiling of $151 billion.

Two Moon Missions Down, One More Planned

Intuitive Machines made history in February 2024 when its Odysseus lander became the first privately funded spacecraft to make a soft landing on the moon. The second lander, Athena, followed in early 2025.

A third lunar mission is planned for 2026, funded primarily by NASA.

The company is also working with NASA and the Department of Defense on space-based communications work. Wall Street currently projects EBITDA of $39 million for 2026.

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