Consensus on 2026 from 30 Top Predictions: Five Key Crypto Narratives Emerge

2025 is drawing to a close.

Most people have clearly noticed that since the second half of this year, the narrative surrounding the crypto industry has gradually dried up, and cryptocurrency trading groups have become much quieter. So, what changes will occur in the market in the upcoming year of 2026, and which narratives will gain favor with the market?

BlockBeats analyzed over 30 predictions for 2026 from top research institutions such as Galaxy, Delphi Digital, a16z, Bitwise, Hashdex, and Coinbase, as well as numerous industry KOLs who have long been involved in research, product development, and investment. From these, they summarized five consistently optimistic narratives for 2026. Working people should definitely read to the end.

Stablecoins are "on the table" of traditional finance.

The first and most widely agreed-upon direction is stablecoins.

The consensus among almost all major forecasters is that stablecoins will complete their transformation from "cryptocurrency tools" to "mainstream financial infrastructure" by 2026.

a16z's data on this matter is very direct, even somewhat "unassailable." They point out that stablecoins have completed approximately $46 trillion in transactions over the past year. To put that into perspective, it's about 20 times PayPal's annual transaction volume, nearly 3 times that of Visa, and continues to approach the size of the US ACH (Automated Clearing House) network.

However, a16z also soberly points out that the problem isn't whether there's demand for stablecoins, but rather how to truly integrate these digital dollars into the financial systems people use every day—specifically, the most concrete, yet also the most cumbersome and laborious, aspects of deposits, withdrawals, payments, settlements, and consumption. They've observed a whole new generation of startups specifically addressing this issue. Some use cryptographic proofs to allow users to convert their local account balances into digital dollars without exposing their privacy; others directly integrate regional banking networks, QR codes, and real-time payment systems, allowing stablecoins to be used like local transfers; and still others are simply starting from the ground up, building truly globally interoperable wallet layers and card issuance platforms, enabling stablecoins to be used directly at everyday merchants.

Therefore, their conclusion is: "As these inflow and outflow channels mature, and the digital dollar is directly integrated into local payment systems and merchant tools, new behavioral patterns will emerge. Workers can receive wages across borders in real time, merchants can accept global dollars without bank accounts, and applications can instantly settle value with users anywhere in the world. Stablecoins will fundamentally transform from niche financial instruments into the foundational settlement layer of the internet."

Even more interestingly, a16z researcher Sam Broner explained from a very "engineer's perspective" why this was almost inevitable. They pointed out that most banks' software systems today are too old for modern developers; the core ledger still runs on mainframes using COBOL, and the interface is batch files rather than APIs. Of course, these systems are stable, trusted by regulators, and deeply embedded in the real world, but the problem is that they can hardly evolve quickly. Even adding a real-time payment function could take months or even years, while simultaneously dealing with mountains of technical debt and regulatory complexity. This is where stablecoins come in.

Crypto KOL and Alongside Finance researcher Route 2 FI lists "stablecoins (traditional financial implementation and track)" as a top focus in his list of narratives of interest, emphasizing how traditional financial institutions implement stablecoin technology and build corresponding financial tracks.

Galaxy Research's assessment is more direct and aggressive. They predict that by the end of 2026, 30% of international payments will be completed through stablecoins.

Bitwise's conclusions are almost identical, except they focus on market size: they predict that the market capitalization of stablecoins will double in 2026, and the key variable behind this is the implementation of the GENIUS Act in early 2026, which will open up growth opportunities for existing issuers and attract new players to enter the competition.

In summary, 2026 will be a pivotal year for stablecoins to move from the periphery to the mainstream.

AI Agents Begin to Become Top Traders

The second, equally consistent but more futuristic consensus is that AI agents will become the main participants in on-chain economic activities, and the AI model cryptocurrency trading competition that garnered widespread attention recently has also confirmed the possibility of this track.

Many people underestimate the speed of this change. The logic is actually not complicated: when AI agents begin to autonomously perform tasks, make decisions, and interact with each other frequently, they naturally need a way to transfer value that is as fast, cheap, and permissionless as transmitting information.

Traditional payment systems are designed for humans, with accounts, identities, and settlement cycles. All of these things are friction for intelligent agents.

Cryptocurrencies, especially stablecoins, coupled with payment protocols like x402, are almost tailor-made for this scenario: instant settlement, support for micropayments, programmability, and permissionless operation. Therefore, 2026 is likely to be the first year that the payment infrastructure for the smart agent economy moves from proof-of-concept to large-scale real-world use.

Sean Neville, a researcher at a16z and co-founder of Circle and architect of USDC, pointed out the real bottleneck of the AI Agent economy from a more fundamental perspective: the problem is shifting from "insufficient intelligence" to "non-existent identity": in the financial system, the number of "non-human identities" has exceeded that of human employees by a ratio of 96 to 1, but these identities are almost all "ghosts without bank accounts".

The financial industry lacks KYA (Know Your Agent, similar to KYC). Just as humans need credit scores to obtain loans, intelligent agents also need encrypted signatures to prove who they represent, who they are bound by, and who is responsible if problems arise. Before KYA, many businesses could only block intelligent agents directly at the firewall level. An industry that has spent decades building KYC now may only have a few months left for KYA.

Other team members at a16z also pointed out in their summary that AI agents need encrypted tracks for micropayments, data access, and computing power settlements. The x402 standard will become the payment pillar of the agent economy. The key asset is no longer the model—but scarce, high-quality real-world data (DePAI), citing projects such as BitRobot, PrismaX, Shaga, and Chakra as examples.

Lucas Tcheyan of Galaxy Research provided a very specific quantitative prediction. He predicts that by 2026, payments following the x402 standard will account for 30% of Base daily transaction volume and 5% of Solana non-voting transactions, marking a significant increase in the use of on-chain tracks in agent interactions.

He believes that as AI agents begin to autonomously transact across services, standardized payment primitives will directly enter the execution layer. Base will gain an advantage due to Coinbase's push in the x402 standard, while Solana will become the other pole thanks to its large developer and user base. Meanwhile, some new chains focused on payments (such as Tempo and Arc) will also grow rapidly in this process.

RWA will become more Degen

Unlike the previous frenzy of "everything can be on the blockchain," the current RWA narrative is noticeably more subdued. Most research institutions are no longer discussing "how big the potential market is," but instead are repeatedly emphasizing one word: feasibility. Because of this, the consensus reached by RWA in 2026 after this period of calm has become more focused.

Guy Wuollet, an analyst at a16z, has been quite critical of the current RWA-tokenized assets. He points out that while we've seen banks, fintech companies, and asset management firms showing great interest in bringing US stocks, commodities, indices, and other traditional assets onto the blockchain, most so-called "tokenizations" are, in essence, still skeuomorphic. These assets have simply been "given a new technological shell," but their design logic, trading methods, and risk structures remain firmly rooted in traditional finance's understanding of real-world assets, rather than leveraging the inherent characteristics of crypto systems themselves.

Galaxy Research's prediction on this issue clearly leans more towards a "structural breakthrough." They didn't dwell on product form, but instead focused directly on the core element of the traditional financial system: collateral.

They predict that within the next year, a major bank or brokerage will begin accepting tokenized shares as formal collateral. If this happens, its symbolic significance far outweighs any single product launch. This is because, to date, tokenized shares have remained on the fringes, either as small-scale experiments within DeFi or as pilot projects by large banks on private blockchains, with virtually no substantial connection to the mainstream financial system.

However, Galaxy points out that the situation is changing. Core infrastructure providers in traditional finance are accelerating their migration to blockchain-based systems; meanwhile, regulators are clearly shifting their supportive stance. This year, they expect to see, for the first time, a major financial institution accepting tokenized shares of on-chain deposits and treating them as assets fully equivalent to traditional securities within a legal and risk framework.

Hashdex is the most aggressive, predicting a tenfold increase in tokenized real-world assets. This prediction is based on increased regulatory clarity, the readiness of traditional financial institutions, and the maturity of technological infrastructure.

Prediction markets are more than just "decentralized gambling".

As most people expected, prediction markets have become a widely favored sector in 2026.

Surprisingly, the reason why prediction markets are viewed favorably is no longer simply because they are "decentralized gambling," but are transforming into an information aggregation and decision-making tool.

Andy Hall of a16z, a professor of political economy at Stanford University, believes that prediction markets have crossed the threshold of "whether they can become mainstream." In the coming year, as they deeply intersect with cryptocurrencies and AI, prediction markets will become larger, more widespread, and more intelligent.

However, he also emphasized that this expansion is not without its costs. Prediction markets are being pushed to a whole new level of complexity: higher trading frequency, faster information feedback, and a more automated participant structure. These changes amplify their value, but also present new challenges to their builders, such as how to ensure fairer and less controversial rulings.

Will Owens of Galaxy Research quantified this change with very specific figures. He predicts that Polymarket's weekly trading volume will continue to exceed $1.5 billion in 2026. This prediction is not unfounded. In fact, prediction markets are already one of the fastest-growing sectors in the crypto space, and Polymarket's nominal weekly trading volume is approaching $1 billion.

He believes that the next driving force behind this figure is three simultaneous forces: a new layer of capital efficiency that is deepening market liquidity, AI-driven order flow that is significantly increasing transaction frequency, and Polymarket’s continuously improving distribution capabilities that are accelerating the inflow of funds.

Bitwise's Ryan Rasmussen offers a more aggressive assessment. He predicts that Polymarket's open interest will surpass the record high set during the 2024 US presidential election. The drivers of this growth are clear: opening up to US users has brought in a large number of new users, an injection of approximately $2 billion in new capital has provided ample ammunition, and the market is no longer limited to politics, but is expanding into multiple areas such as economics, sports, and popular culture.

Beyond institutional investors, KOLs' assessments are equally intriguing. Tomasz Tunguz believes that by 2026, the adoption rate of prediction markets among the US population will increase from the current 5% to 35%. In comparison, the adoption rate of gambling in the US is approximately 56%. This suggests that prediction markets are evolving from a niche financial tool into a product approaching mainstream entertainment and information consumption.

However, amidst this optimism, Galaxy also offered a clearly cautionary prediction: they believe a federal investigation into prediction markets is highly likely.

As US regulators gradually give the green light to on-chain prediction markets, trading volume and open interest have surged. Simultaneously, related shady dealings have begun to surface. Several scandals have already emerged involving insiders using undisclosed information to gain early access or manipulating matches in major sports leagues. Because prediction markets allow traders to participate under pseudonyms, rather than through the strict KYC processes of traditional betting platforms, the temptation for insiders to abuse privileged information is significantly amplified.

Therefore, Galaxy believes that future investigations may no longer be triggered by abnormal behavior in regulated gambling systems, but rather by suspicious price fluctuations in on-chain prediction markets themselves.

This topic can also lead to a fifth consensus: privacy.

Will privacy coins become another dark horse?

As more and more funds, data, and automated decision-making are pushed onto the blockchain, exposure itself is becoming an unacceptable cost. This has already begun to become apparent by 2025.

This year, the privacy concept sector has also been a dark horse, with its growth even surpassing that of mainstream cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. Therefore, predicting the future of the privacy sector in 2026 has become one of the consensuses among most institutions, researchers, and KOLs.

Christopher Rosa of Galaxy Research has made a striking prediction: the total market capitalization of privacy tokens will exceed $100 billion by the end of 2026. He explains that privacy tokens gained significant attention in the last quarter of 2025 as on-chain privacy became a top priority as investors deposited more funds on-chain. Among the top three privacy coins, Zcash rose by approximately 800% in the same quarter, Railgun by approximately 204%, and Monero recorded a more modest increase of 53%.

Christopher provides an interesting historical context: early Bitcoin developers, including Satoshi Nakamoto himself, explored and researched privacy technologies. Early discussions about Bitcoin's design included ideas for making transactions more private, or even completely shielded. However, at that time, truly usable and deployable zero-knowledge proof technology was far from mature.

But the situation is completely different today. As zero-knowledge technology gradually becomes engineering-ready and the value carried on-chain increases significantly, more and more users, especially institutional users, are beginning to seriously examine a previously accepted fact: are they really willing to permanently disclose their entire crypto asset balance, transaction path, and capital structure to anyone?

Privacy issues have thus transformed from "idealistic needs" into "institutional-level real-world problems."

Adeniyi Abiodun, co-founder of Mysten Labs, supplemented this logic from another perspective. Instead of starting directly from asset prices or user behavior, he broke down the problem into a more fundamental dependency: data.

In his view, every model, every intelligent agent, and every automated system relies on the same thing: data. However, today, most data pipelines—both the data input to the model and the results output—are opaque, variable, and unauditable. This might be acceptable for some consumer applications, but in industries like finance and healthcare, it's an almost insurmountable obstacle. And as intelligent agent systems begin to autonomously browse, trade, and make decisions, this problem is further amplified.

Against this backdrop, Adeniyi proposed the concept of "secrets-as-a-service." He argues that what's needed in the future is not post-application privacy features, but a complete, native, programmable data access infrastructure: including enforceable data access rules, client-side encryption mechanisms, and a decentralized key management system to enforce who can decrypt what data, under what conditions, and for how long. All these rules should be enforced on-chain, rather than relying on internal organizational processes or manual constraints. Combined with verifiable data systems, privacy itself can become a component of the internet's public infrastructure, rather than an add-on feature of a particular application.

Additional observations, a must-read for crypto workers.

Beyond these main conclusions, almost all institutions offered some interesting but unresolved discussions, contributing additional observations.

One of the most interesting developments is the shift in application-layer value capture trends. A growing number of predictions suggest that the "fat application theory" is replacing the "fat protocol theory." Value is no longer primarily deposited in the base chain and general protocol layers, but is gradually concentrating at the application layer. This isn't because the underlying layers are unimportant, but because what truly interacts directly with users, data, and cash flow is still the application itself.

This leads to another highly contentious discussion: Ethereum, which aspires to become the world's computer, has historically been a proponent of "fat protocols." With the trend towards "fat applications," how will Ethereum's value change?

Some argue that it will continue to benefit as a crucial layer for tokenization and financial infrastructure; others believe it may gradually evolve into a "boring but necessary" underlying network, with most of its value being absorbed by the application layers built upon it.

Most analyses of Bitcoin still believe it will perform exceptionally well in 2026, with continued strong institutional demand through ETFs and DAT, establishing its status as a strategic macro asset and "digital gold." However, the threat posed by quantum computing is real.

In addition, some analysts have analyzed potential changes in the organization and recruitment of project teams after 2026:

For example, a16z believes that companies will begin to pay more for AI agents than for human employees, a phenomenon already observed at the consumer level. Waymo's rides are on average 31% more expensive than Uber's, but demand continues to grow, with users willing to pay a premium for the safety and reliability of autonomous driving.

This logic also holds true within enterprises. When companies factor in the implicit costs of recruitment, onboarding, training, and management, AI agents actually become more cost-effective when performing routine business tasks. a16z further predicts that for the first time, AI agents will be able to autonomously execute tasks for more than a full workday. According to METR data, the duration of AI tasks roughly doubles every seven months. Current cutting-edge models can already reliably complete tasks that would normally take humans about an hour. Extrapolating from this trend, by the end of 2026, it will become a reality for AI agents to autonomously execute workflows exceeding eight hours, fundamentally changing how companies allocate staff and plan projects.

Meanwhile, other changes, less publicly discussed but already emerging in actual hiring, include the reversal of the age premium. More and more founding teams are willing to entrust their protocol's funds and national treasury to a 42-year-old former risk officer from a second-tier bank with real experience in a complete credit cycle, rather than a 23-year-old native DeFi player who has only worked in DeFi during bull markets. Real-world risk cycle experience is once again becoming more valuable than "native narratives."

The compensation structure is also undergoing subtle changes due to shifts in market demand, with compliance-related positions now commanding salaries far exceeding those of engineers. Talent involved in compliance, stablecoins, and anti-money laundering is receiving total contracts exceeding $400,000, while the salaries of some protocol layer engineers are already falling below this level.