The market is in a state where the drop of larger assets below major support thersholds opens up the possibility for a further downslide. Unfortunatelly, it seems that there will be no recovery in the foreseeable future, and it is a reality investors should accept to keep moving foward.
Ethereum loses substance
Ethereum is winding down; it is no longer trending. The daily chart clearly shows the market structure: ETH failed to maintain its post-rally highs, rolled over below important moving averages and is currently declining in a managed, nonpanic sell-off. This is not a sign of surrender. It is a downward-resolving distribution.
ETH/USDT Chart by TradingViewEthereum is currently acting like an asset that has lost control but not momentum. Every attempt at a bounce has been swiftly sold, and the price is below the short- and mid-term EMAs. This indicates that buyers lack the confidence to defend higher levels, while sellers rely solely on weakness and do not require urgency.
This is confirmed by the volume, which is muted on green days and elevated on red ones. That is not chaos but traditional bearish pressure. Before $2,500, there is not much in the way, structurally. Former support levels are now serving as overhead resistance, and prior consolidation zones have already been broken or invalidated.
In essence, ETH is trading in a vacuum between areas where demand was previously present and areas where it could conceivably resurface. Technically speaking, $2,500 sticks out as the next region where buyers might reasonably appear. This is not because it is magical, but rather because it fits with longer-term moving averages, psychological pricing and previous accumulation.
Crucially, there is not much that prevents Ethereum from eventually reaching that point. There is no bullish divergence that should be respected, no strong horizontal support above it, and no recovery of trend-defining averages. The idea that ETH is not oversold, and that the market has room to move lower without inciting reflexive buying, is supported by the RSI’s midrange position.
XRP’s market weakness
XRP is not dead, but it is weak. The market consistently overlooks that crucial distinction. XRP has not truly lost its macro bottom support, even though the price has been declining and is still trapped below its major moving averages. Right now, that is more important than most short-term indicators.
Rather than being in free fall, XRP is currently acting more like a compressed asset under ongoing sell pressure. Every bounce over the previous few weeks has been sold, the downtrend channel remains intact and the momentum is obviously bearish.
However, in spite of all of this, the price is still above the last significant demand zone, which was previously the site of significant selling and earlier reversals. Despite several tests, that level has not been clearly broken. This is not power. It is adaptable. And those two concepts are quite different.
The idea that downward momentum is slowing rather than accelerating is supported by the RSI being close to the lower bound. Although XRP is not extremely oversold, it is close enough to discourage more aggressive selling unless the overall state of the market deteriorates. Although sellers are active, their level of control is lower than it is prior to a breakdown.
It is very possible to bounce from this area. It is merely a reaction, not a drastic reversal or a change in trend. Do not think about recovery but relief. Technically, a return to short-term moving averages or local resistance would be justified without the need for a bullish catalyst. It would just be the market honoring a level that has not failed yet.
It is crucial to have expectations. It is unlikely that XRP will rise significantly if it does. Volume would most likely remain moderate, and price would continue to encounter significant overhead resistance. But before we even talk about strength, survival is important.
Bitcoin’s structure stabilizes
One pattern stands out above the others in Bitcoin’s current structure: a head-and-shoulders formation on the daily time frame. It is just the most straightforward explanation for the pattern of price action we have observed over the past few months; it is neither a stretch nor a narrative grab.
A decisive loss of trend support, followed by a powerful rally into a blow-off high (the head), and two lower highs that were unable to regain momentum (the shoulders). That is the textbook move.
Instead of collapsing, Bitcoin is currently acting like an asset going from a trend to a correction. The head-and-shoulders thesis is perfectly supported by the price’s failure to regain key moving averages after breaking below them. The fact that this structure has already sustained the majority of its damage is what counts.
Following the right shoulder, there was an aggressive sell-off that appears to be the pattern’s resolution rather than its beginning. This is where most people make mistakes. A finished head and shoulders does not always indicate a bearish outlook. In actuality, it frequently creates the conditions for stabilization and recovery once the pattern is completed and weak hands are flushed.
Markets reset rather than trending continuously. This pattern serves as a reset method. A basing phase around current levels, with volatility compressing as sellers lose urgency, might occur next.
When the RSI is close to the lower range, it indicates that the downward momentum is cooling rather than accelerating. There is no longer any indication of panic, only the unwinding of heavy positioning. That is precisely what one would anticipate following the resolution of a structural pattern.
Source: https://u.today/crypto-market-prediction-2500-is-ethereums-next-cushion-xrp-obviously-not-hitting-0-bitcoin-btc-hs
