SanDisk Stock Jumps as Higher Prices Drive Massive Earnings Growth

SanDisk closed Friday, September 18, at $1,791.82, up 10.99% in a single session, as the flash-memory maker prepared to join the S&P 100 and the market was reminded how much of its earnings power comes from price. Its latest report, for the quarter ended July 3, showed revenue of $8.97 billion, up 372% from a year earlier, and non-GAAP earnings of $39.25 per share against $0.29 a year ago, with roughly two-thirds of the sequential revenue gain coming from higher prices rather than higher volume. Cost of revenue actually fell year over year, which is how an 84.6% gross margin appeared. The stock sold off on cautious guidance after that report, yet it now trades about 32.7% above its August 5 close. This piece covers what SanDisk reported, why the shares jumped last week, where the chart stands, and how bulls and bears read a business whose profits ride on the price of every gigabyte.

 

SanDisk reported fiscal fourth-quarter results on August 5, and the numbers show how completely price drove them. Revenue of $8.965 billion compared with $5.950 billion in the prior quarter and $1.901 billion a year earlier, and it topped the company's own guidance range of $7.75 billion to $8.25 billion. Non-GAAP earnings of $39.25 per share compared with $23.41 in the prior quarter, and non-GAAP operating income reached $7.104 billion. For fiscal 2026, revenue was $20.25 billion, up 175%, and non-GAAP earnings were $70.88 per share, versus $2.99 the year before. The end markets diverged sharply. Datacenter revenue rose 103% sequentially to $2.977 billion, roughly 14 times its year-ago level, while Edge revenue rose 48% to $5.432 billion and Consumer revenue fell 32% to $556 million. Edge actually added more dollars sequentially than Datacenter, $1.77 billion versus $1.51 billion.

The price arithmetic is the heart of the story. SanDisk said about one-third of the sequential growth came from volume and two-thirds from pricing, which is roughly $2.01 billion of the $3.015 billion increase. Cost of revenue rose only about 7.4% from the prior quarter, to $1.383 billion, and was slightly below the $1.403 billion of a year ago, so non-GAAP gross margin climbed to 84.6% from 78.4% and beat the company's own 79% to 81% guide. Reported GAAP earnings of $43.97 per share were higher than the non-GAAP figure because of an $804 million gain on equity securities, so the non-GAAP number is the cleaner read. Adjusted free cash flow was $5.035 billion, a 56% margin, after excluding $1.938 billion of customer prepayments and deposits. SanDisk, which separated from Western Digital (NASDAQ:WDC) in February 2025, ended the quarter with no long-term debt, repurchased $4.524 billion of stock, and added a $14 billion buyback authorization for $15.5 billion in total capacity.

Guidance and contracts shaped the reaction. For fiscal Q1 2027, SanDisk guided revenue to $10.30 billion to $10.80 billion, gross margin to 83.0% to 85.0%, and non-GAAP earnings to $44.00 to $46.00 per share on about 155 million diluted shares. The revenue midpoint of $10.55 billion was above LSEG's $10.47 billion estimate but below FactSet's $10.80 billion. At its August 13 investor day, SanDisk added that New Business Model agreements with eight customers, built on committed volumes, minimum financial guarantees and structured pricing, represent about 50% of fiscal 2027 bits and roughly two-thirds of fiscal 2028 bits. It also laid out a fiscal 2028 to 2030 model of mid-to-high-teens revenue growth, a gross margin near 80%, and an adjusted free cash flow margin near 50%.

 

The path to Friday was anything but smooth. SanDisk closed at $1,427.62 on August 4, fell 5.4% to $1,350.50 on August 5 ahead of the report, and then dropped as much as 11% on August 6 despite the beat, as investors weighed a guidance midpoint that fell short of some estimates and a gross margin guide that stepped down slightly. The stock recovered over the following weeks and jumped roughly 11% to 12% on September 4, the day S&P Dow Jones Indices announced that SanDisk would join the S&P 100 effective before the open on Monday, September 21.

Friday, the last session before the change took effect, delivered the biggest leg. SanDisk opened at $1,624.06, held above $1,616 all day, reached a high of $1,797.00, and closed at $1,791.82 after gaining roughly 6% on Thursday. Funds that track the S&P 100 must own every member, and that mechanical buying was a major driver, though analysts disagree about how much of the move it explains. The broader memory group helped, with Micron (NASDAQ:MU) and SK hynix (NASDAQ:SKHY) rising in Friday's pre-market session ahead of Micron's September 30 report, days after Intel's CEO said memory prices have climbed between five and seven times.

The move also reflects how far the stock had recovered. At $1,791.82, SanDisk is about 32.7% above its August 5 close, and it trades roughly 24.3 times its fiscal 2026 GAAP earnings of $73.76 per share. Annualizing the $45 midpoint of its fiscal Q1 earnings guidance implies about 10 times forward run-rate earnings, which helps explain why bulls see the multiple as modest for a business growing this quickly. The question is whether price gains can keep feeding those earnings.

 

 

 

SanDisk hit its record intraday high of $2,354.39 on June 22 and its record close of $2,335.00 on June 25, and Friday's close sits about 23.9% below that peak. After the August earnings sell-off, the stock traded in the low $1,200s at its weakest, so the rebound to $1,791.82 recovers about half of the ground between that low and the record. The daily swing has been extreme, with the stock up about 6% on Thursday and 10.99% on Friday, and TradingView lists beta at 3.82.

Trend indicators were constructive in early September. The 200-day simple moving average sat near $1,004 to $1,011, far below the price, and the 14-day RSI was around 61, a neutral reading. Friday's move likely changed that reading, so check it against a live chart.

Resistance begins at Friday's $1,797.00 high, followed by the record close of $2,335.00 and the $2,354.39 intraday record. Support starts near Friday's low of about $1,616 and Thursday's $1,614.39 close, followed by the $1,350.50 close from August 5, the day of the report, and the low $1,200s where the stock bottomed after it. A drop back below $1,614.39 on light volume would suggest the index-driven jump is fading, while holding the $1,790 area after the rebalance would show that buyers are looking through the mechanics.

 

The bull case is that SanDisk's earnings are now anchored by contracts rather than spot prices. Bernstein analyst Mark Newman raised his price target to $3,000 from $1,700 in late June, arguing that the new agreements, with fixed or range-bound pricing and upfront customer commitments, sharply reduce the risk of severe earnings swings. He estimated the floor price at about $0.29 per gigabyte, in line with second-quarter 2026 average selling prices, and modeled that with 60% of volume covered, fiscal 2030 earnings would still be $214 per share even after a 72% peak-to-trough price decline, versus $81 without the agreements. His base case is $243 per share for fiscal 2027 and $272 for fiscal 2028. SanDisk says demand is growing faster than supply and expects bits to stay on allocation beyond calendar 2027, and TrendForce expects tight NAND supply to ease only in the second half of 2027. TIKR counts 25 analysts on the stock, split among 16 Buy, 4 Outperform, 3 Hold, 1 Underperform and 1 Sell ratings, with a mean target of $2,125.

The bear case starts with what is doing the work. Two-thirds of the latest quarter's growth was price, the gross margin guide steps down 0.6 points at the midpoint, and Consumer revenue fell 32%, which shows some demand responding to higher prices. Morningstar has noted that SanDisk sells largely commodity-like NAND with limited differentiation, and even Bernstein's stress case shows earnings falling if prices collapse. Supply is not standing still either. Reuters reported on September 18 that China's CXMT is preparing a NAND research and production line, adding to YMTC, which Counterpoint estimates shipped about 14% of global NAND bits in the second quarter, ahead of SanDisk's roughly 11%. SanDisk also depends on its partnership with Kioxia (TYO:285A) for manufacturing, which it lists among its key risks. Trading at about 24.3 times GAAP earnings with a beta near 3.8, the stock leaves little room for a pricing disappointment.

 

The first test is Monday. Once the S&P 100 rebalance trades settle, the market will show whether the jump reflects lasting demand or forced buying, and Friday's volume of 17.6 million shares was more than double the prior session's. A quick giveback on lighter volume would point to a mechanical move. The next fundamental checkpoint is Micron's report on September 30, which should offer fresh evidence on NAND and DRAM pricing, followed by SanDisk's own fiscal first-quarter report on November 5, where the $10.30 billion to $10.80 billion revenue guide and $44 to $46 earnings guide will be the bar.

Macro pressure adds another layer. The Federal Reserve raised rates on September 16 and signaled more increases, the 10-year Treasury yield touched roughly 5% this week, and AI-safety warnings from Anthropic, OpenAI and Elon Musk hit AI-linked chip stocks earlier this month. On MEXC, SNDK futures trading volume rose 1,573% month over month in July, ranking first among Stock and Index Futures, a sign of how much attention the storage trade attracts. With a beta of 3.82, a 5% move in the broader market has historically translated into a far larger swing in SanDisk, so position sizing matters more here than in most large-cap names, and traders may prefer to define risk around $1,614.39 and $1,350.50 before November 5.

 

SanDisk's story is unusually clear: prices for NAND have risen fast enough that revenue jumped 372% while costs barely moved, and multi-year agreements now promise to keep a large share of those prices in place through fiscal 2028. What is less clear is how much of Friday's 10.99% gain came from index buying and how much from conviction. With $1,797.00 as the ceiling that capped Friday's rally and $1,350.50 as the floor from the day of the earnings report, will SanDisk's November 5 results show price increases still lifting margins, or has the market already paid for the peak?

 

A: SanDisk rose 10.99% to $1,791.82 on September 18, the last session before it joined the S&P 100 on September 21, which forced index funds to buy the stock. The move also came alongside strength in memory stocks and a fundamental backdrop of 372% year-over-year revenue growth.

A: SanDisk said about two-thirds of its fiscal fourth-quarter sequential revenue growth came from higher pricing and one-third from higher volume. Revenue rose to $8.965 billion while cost of revenue fell slightly from a year earlier, lifting non-GAAP gross margin to 84.6%.

A: SanDisk guided revenue to $10.30 billion to $10.80 billion, non-GAAP gross margin to 83.0% to 85.0%, and non-GAAP earnings to $44.00 to $46.00 per share. Its next earnings report is scheduled for November 5, 2026.

A: They are multi-year supply agreements built on committed volumes, minimum financial guarantees and structured pricing. SanDisk has signed them with eight customers covering about 50% of fiscal 2027 bits and roughly two-thirds of fiscal 2028 bits, with about $93.9 billion in minimum contracted revenue at floor pricing.

A: SanDisk closed at $1,791.82 on September 18, about 23.9% below its record intraday high of $2,354.39 set on June 22, 2026. The mean analyst target is $2,125, roughly 19% above Friday's close.