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On September 2nd, the three major indexes of the US stock market rose synchronously, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average + 0.56%, the S & P 500 + 0.47%, and the Nasdaq + 0.45%. In August, the ADP prOn September 2nd, the three major indexes of the US stock market rose synchronously, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average + 0.56%, the S & P 500 + 0.47%, and the Nasdaq + 0.45%. In August, the ADP pr

Pre-Market Briefing on Sept 3: Silver Inches Up, HL Soars 8.7%. Can CIEN Deliver Another Upside Beat Tonight?

#US Stocks

2026/09/03 15:26

On September 2nd, the three major indexes of the US stock market rose synchronously, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average + 0.56%, the S & P 500 + 0.47%, and the Nasdaq + 0.45%. In August, the ADP private employment only increased by 38,000, which was lower than expected 47,000. Interest rate bets cooled down, and precious metals and utilities moved together. The star of the day is Hekla Mining (HL), which rose 8.69% in a single day to close at $20.77 - while the change in silver price on the same day was less than 1%. Today, the US stock school asked a question: has the mining company really decoupled from the currency price after more than a year of switching to AI?Tonight at 12:30 UTC, Ciena (CIEN), a manufacturer of optical communication equipment, will submit its paper. The data in this article is based on the closing of the US stock market on September 2nd.

1.Today's market: the index rose synchronously, but Broadcom still fell after hitting all three numbers

The unit is points and percentages, and the rise and fall of the day is relative to the closing of the previous trading day. The three major indexes closed up synchronously, with a similar amplitude: the Dow Jones Industrial Average + 0.56% closed at 53,061.95, the S & P 500 + 0.47% closed at 7,667.45, and the Nasdaq + 0.45% closed at 26,217.83. The differentiation at the sector level is much more obvious than the index: the Nasdaq-caliber utilities + 2.26% led the way, followed by communication services + 1.47%, and the industrial sector -1.03% was at the bottom.Industries with heavy capital and high debt are the first to move when raising interest rates and betting on cooling down, which is the same reason as the rise in precious metals that day.

What's really worth remembering is Broadcom (AVGO) last night. Its revenue in the previous quarter was 29.60 billion US dollars, 86% year-on-year, AI semiconductor 16.70 billion, 221% year-on-year, and the next quarter guidance 34.80 billion (of which AI 21.70 billion) - all three numbers were above expectations, but the underlying stock fell 0.66% to 367.24 US dollars on the same day, and fell about 6% after the close, then narrowed to about 3.5%.

The disagreement is not in revenue, but in profit margin: the adjusted operating profit margin for this quarter is about 68%, and the company is pointing to 66% for next quarter. Revenue tells you how much has been sold, and profit margin tells you whether this business is getting more profitable or thinner - when high growth has been factored into the price, a "slightly worse than last quarter" profit margin guide is enough to drive the stock price down.

2.Star of the Day: Silver price less than 1%, Hekla Mining up 8.69%

The unit is 0-100 points. Compared with the same industry and its own one-year history, the benchmark is the closing price on September 2nd. Hekla Mining (HL) is a precious metal miner with a market value of $13.90 billion. It closed at $20.77 on the same day, up 8.69%. The market value increased by about $1.10 billion a day, and the trading volume remained the same as the daily average - the increase came from pricing, not volume.

Among the five corners, the industry ranking is out of 100, and the relative strength of the industry is 81. There is no stronger target in this category on that day. However, the weakest trend position is only 47, and the stock price is still in the middle of its 52-week range. This combination seems contradictory, but it is actually two different things - the ranking talks about "who rose more today", which is a horizontal single-day comparison; the trend position talks about "how far it is from its high point", which is a vertical cross-time comparison. Separating the two dimensions will prevent the event-driven single-day strength from being misjudged as a trend.

The cause is straightforward: in August, ADP private employment only increased by 38,000, lower than expected 47,000, interest rate hikes bet on cooling down, and silver prices turned from falling to rising. The mining cost of miners is roughly fixed within a year, but the selling price fluctuates with the metal quotation, so a 1% increase in metal may be several percentage points in gross profit, and the stock price will be magnified again - this is operating leverage. Today, this set of numbers is the most intuitive: silver price is less than 1%, and Hekla is 8.69%.

There is a limitation that must be remembered at the same time: this round of rise comes from the interest rate hike bet to cool down, and there are two non-farm payroll and CPI data to be released before the Federal Reserve meeting on September 15-16. The bet can change direction with the next data.

3. Star of the Day · Extension: The same data, two reactions at the silver and gold ends

The unit is%, which represents the daily increase and decrease on September 2nd, and the comparison benchmark is the closing of the previous trading day. All six companies are listed under the precious metals sector, but the same employment data has completely different reactions at both ends: Hekla in the silver end + 8.69%, Endeavour Silver also + 8.69%, and Coeur Mining + 6.04%; Wheaton Precious Metals in the gold-silver mix + 4.13%; Newmont in the gold end only + 2.06%, and AngloGold Ashanti even fell 0.28%.

The difference comes from the dual identity of silver: it is both a precious metal and an industrial metal, and silver is used in photovoltaics, electronics, and solder. Therefore, a data of "economic slowdown, interest rate hikes, and cooling bets" is mainly a benefit for gold on the interest rate side, and for silver, it is a dual effect of interest rate side and industrial demand expectations, with greater elasticity.

The average sector rose by 2.42% that day, which concealed the internal gap - just looking at it, you would think the entire sector rose by more than two points. When you see the overall movement of the sector, first break it down, see which end is rising, and then decide which level to look at. This action is useful every day.

4. US stock primary school: Mining companies turned to AI for more than a year, has it really decoupled?

The figure shows the contracted or delivered production capacity and corresponding payers of five mining companies. The megawatt and lease amounts are contract conditions, not current revenue. All five companies are converting their mines into AI data centers, but the contracted megawatt is only the numerator, and the payer is the denominator - for the same long-term contract, who pays determines how much it is worth.

Marathon Digital (MARA) did not transfer at all, and the income depends entirely on the currency price: in the second quarter, the computing power increased by 22% annually, but the revenue decreased by 27% annually to $174.90 million. During the same period, 2,213 bitcoins were sold to make up for cash. Core Scientific (CORZ) was the earliest to transfer, having delivered 243 trillion watts and leased for 12 years, but almost only one cloud startup customer, and issued a $3.30 billion project bond with a coupon of 7.75%.TeraWulf (WULF) contracts over 510 trillion watts, of which Google endorses about $1.3 billion in rental obligations. Cipher Mining (CIFR) divides 600 trillion watts between two payers: Amazon directly signs 300 trillion watts for 15 years, Fluidstack 300 trillion watts for 10 years, and Google endorses another $1.73 billion. Applied Digital (APLD) has 1,410 MW in hand, of which 1,010 MW are paid by investment-grade cloud vendors.

Fall together, bounce up before differentiation

The unit is%, and the value is equal to (latest Closing Price − 52-week low) ÷ 52-week low, which measures how much has come back from their respective lows. Cipher Mining bounced 114.3%, Applied Digital 89.3%, TeraWulf 72.3%, Marathon Digital 57.2%, Bitcoin was 34.7% during the same period, while Core Scientific was only 28.0%.

The key is to look at it from a different perspective and get the opposite impression: if we look at it from a retracement perspective, the six targets are squeezed between 38% and 55% away from the high point, with a small gap; if we look at it from a rebound perspective, it has fallen from 28% to 114%, with a difference of four times. When it falls, it falls together, and when it rebounds, it diverges - the amplitude has never shrunk, and the so-called decoupling did not happen in the price, but in the contract. The market does not give it the title of transformation, but the quality of the contract.

5.Get to know a company: Cipher Mining is in the power plant business, not the cloud business

The unit is megawatts, which is the production capacity and corresponding payment party that CIFR has divided; the total production capacity is 807 trillion watts, of which 74% has been allocated to AI customers. It does not buy GPUs or sell computing power, only provides electricity, venues, and grid connection licenses - there are only 66 people in the company. This sentence is the key to understanding it: it earns money not from computing power, but from power stations.

It split the counterparty in half: one Amazon signed directly 300 trillion watts for 15 years, and the other 300 trillion watts leased by Fluidstack for 10 years, with Google endorsing a $1.73 billion rental obligation. The benefit of dispersion is that a default will not bring down the entire table, but the cost is that income is locked in by rent, and it has nothing to do with how much customers earn from this electricity - a business of certainty for limits.

Putting the five companies together, we get the most worthwhile method today: look at the quality of an AI contract, first see who pays - whether the payer is Amazon, a new startup with Google endorsement, or a new startup expanding through financing. The difference in quality is far, which is a different scenario for the risk of the familiar counterparty in the cryptocurrency circle. Looking at concentration, Applied Digital's 1,010 MW is scattered among investment-grade cloud vendors, while Core Scientific's 243 MW is almost bet on the same company.Finally, it depends on when the money will arrive. The contract amount is the sum of the next ten years, and this year's cash flow is another matter.

6.What to watch tonight: Will CIEN's annual guidance be revised again?

The unit is billion US dollars, which is the median guidance for the company's annual revenue for the fiscal year 2026 (ending in October); the leftmost one is the actual value 4.77 billion for the fiscal year 2025, and the other three are guidance, not realized performance. The first guidance 5.90 billion from December 2025, revised up to 6.10 billion in March, and then revised up to 6.30 billion in June, with a median year-on-year growth rate from 28% to 32%.

Ciena (CIEN) will release its financial report before 12:30 UTC tonight, along with initial jobless claims and speeches from Federal Reserve Board members. At 14:00 UTC, it will be the August ISM Services PMI. The real watershed this week will be tomorrow's August non-farm payrolls report. The company's own guidance for this quarter's revenue is about $1.625 billion, a year-on-year increase of about 33%.

Its position is the second leg of AI capital expenditure: money flows first to chips, then to optical channels that connect computing power, and Ciena is doing coherent optical transmission and routing switching equipment between data centers, metropolitan areas, and long-distance backbones. Focusing on the annual guidance rather than quarterly revenue is because the delivery rhythm and confirmation timing will be disturbed in a single quarter. The median annual guidance is the company's own recognition and statement of annual demand - whether it changes or not can better indicate order visibility than whether it meets the standard in a single quarter.

Drill down: Which line is holding up this financial report?

The unit is%, which is the year-on-year growth rate of the revenue of each Line of Business in the previous quarter; the total revenue of the previous quarter was 1.57 billion dollars, which was composed of five lines: optical network 1.10 billion, global service 179 million, routing and switching 174 million, platform software and service 94 million, Blue Planet automation 23 million.

The optical network that withstands this financial report is 1.10 billion US dollars, + 42.2% year-on-year, accounting for 70% of the revenue; the fastest growing is routing and switching, + 87.9%, with a scale of only 174 million, about one-sixth of the optical network. The two lines sell different things: the optical network is connected between the data center, and the routing and switching is the layer where data enters and exits the park, following the east-west flow of the AI cluster, with a small base and great elasticity.

The reading is that the growth rate and scale should be looked at together: the doubling of the small base cannot pull up the entire financial report, but it tells you where the demand is spreading; the 42% on the large base is the line that determines this quarter's numbers. Tonight, in addition to the total number, it is also worth seeing whether the routing and switching can continue to approach the doubling, and whether Blue Planet's -16.4% has stopped. In addition, the adjusted gross profit margin for the previous quarter was 44.9%, and the company pointed to 45% for this quarter - when revenue relies on direct procurement from large customers, gross profit margin is a measure of gold content.

7.Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q1: Why did Hekla Mining (HL) rise 8.69% when the silver price changed less than 1% that day?

Because the mining cost of miners is roughly fixed within a year, the selling price fluctuates with the metal quotation, and the small changes in the metal almost all contribute to the gross profit, and the stock price is magnified again - this is the operating leverage. The multiple of "metal rise and fall" and "individual stock rise and fall" is how much leverage there is.

Q2: Both are precious metals, why did the silver end rise by 6% to 9% while the gold end was around 0%?

Because silver is both a precious metal and an industrial metal, it is used in photovoltaics, electronics, and soldering materials. The data of "economic slowdown, interest rate hikes, and cooling bets" is mainly a benefit for gold on the interest rate side, and for silver, it is a dual effect of expected demand from the interest rate processing industry, with greater elasticity. The sector rose by an average of 2.42% on the day, which masked the gap between the two ends.

Q3: Why do "industry ranking 100" and "trend position 47" appear at the same time in the 5D score?

Because the two are not the same thing in terms of quantity. The industry ranking compares who has risen more in the same category today, which is a horizontal single-day comparison; the trend position compares how far the price is from the high point of its 52-week range, which is a vertical cross-time comparison. A stock can rise the most on the same day, while the price is only half of its own range.

Q4: Mining companies have all turned to AI, why is the stock price still following the currency price?

Because the decoupling did not happen in the price. Looking at the rebound from the 52-week low, Cipher Mining rebounded by 114.3% and Core Scientific only by 28.0%, a difference of four times; looking at the retracement from the high point, the six targets were squeezed between 38% and 55%. It was only when they fell together and rebounded that they diverged - the amplitude did not shrink, and the differentiation was the contract quality, not the price correlation.

Q5: When reading an AI long-term contract, which number should I look at first?

It's not the megawatt, it's the payer. The megawatt signed is just the numerator, and the payer is the denominator: for the same 10-year lease, the payer is Amazon, a startup with Google endorsement, or a startup expanding through financing, with a big difference in quality. Then look at the concentration (whether it's in one company or scattered among several companies), and finally see when the money starts to arrive - the contract amount is the sum of the next decade, and this year's cash flow is another matter.

Disclaimer: This article is compiled and written by the MEXC RealStocks team. The data in this article is based on the closing of the US stock market on September 2, 2026; the content is compiled from public market information, and the individual stocks are the subject of public discussion, which does not represent the recommendation or opinion of MEXC and does not constitute any investment advice. More US stock content: @MEXC | @Alpha_MEXC | @MEXC_Research

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