This Week's Market: Inflation Reheats and Hike Bets Return September CPI rose 3.7% from a year earlier, up from 3.4% in August, and 0.6% on the month. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, was upThis Week's Market: Inflation Reheats and Hike Bets Return September CPI rose 3.7% from a year earlier, up from 3.4% in August, and 0.6% on the month. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, was up
Akademiya/Daily & Weekly Reports/US Stocks Weekly/US Stocks Weekly on October.10-15 | CPI Hits 3.7% and Chips Lead the Drop; Why Does JPMorgan Say They Aren't Oversold?
US Stocks Weekly on October.10-15 | CPI Hits 3.7% and Chips Lead the Drop; Why Does JPMorgan Say They Aren't Oversold?
This Week's Market: Inflation Reheats and Hike Bets Return
September CPI rose 3.7% from a year earlier, up from 3.4% in August, and 0.6% on the month. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, was up 2.6% YoY. Gasoline jumped 9.1% in the month and accounted for about half of the gain. September PPI, released the next day, rose 1.3% on the month, the largest monthly increase since March 2022.
The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points on 9/16, taking the target range to 3.75%–4.00%. After the CPI print, one analyst said markets were pricing close to even odds of another hike in October. The 10-year Treasury yield is hovering around 5.1%.
At the index level, the S&P 500 fell from 7,811.54 to 7,744.06 this week, down 0.86%. The Nasdaq Composite fell from 27,366.17 to 26,713.03, down 2.39%. The Nasdaq's decline was close to three times the S&P 500's, a sign that the pressure fell mainly on tech.
The selling also spread to Asia. On 10/15, South Korea's KOSPI closed down 8%, with SK Hynix down 11% and Samsung Electronics down 9%.
Why Chip Stocks Fell First
A large part of a chip stock's valuation rests on earnings several years out. When rates rise, those future earnings are worth less in today's money, and the higher the valuation and the further out the earnings, the bigger the hit.
This time there is an extra layer: AI data centers are largely being built with borrowed money. At the same forum in Singapore on 10/12, Broadcom CEO Hock Tan and Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan both said capital and financing costs could become the bottleneck for AI expansion. In Lip-Bu Tan's words, the biggest challenge for AI is "capital and the cost of capital."
A JPMorgan strategist looked at it from the flow side: in this pullback, appetite for buying on dips has weakened, short positions are too small to fuel short-covering demand, and corporate buyback money is shrinking. Based on positioning and flows, AI infrastructure stocks are not yet oversold.
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Five Key Stocks: This Week at a Glance
Stock | Wk | YTD | 52-wk position | Volume |
NVIDIA (NVDA) | -5.26% | +16.48% | 67% | 1.00x |
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) | -7.54% | +162.53% | 80% | 1.15x |
TSMC (TSM) | -6.85% | +38.95% | 70% | 1.84x |
Intel (INTC) | -8.91% | +158.46% | 57% | 1.31x |
Tesla (TSLA) | -5.29% | -19.41% | 32% | 0.67x |
NVIDIA (NVDA): Fell 3.2% on 10/14, the day CPI came out, its biggest one-day drop of the week. Volume on 10/15 was in line with its recent average: the stock moved with the sector, with no panic selling.
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD): The FT reported OpenAI's annualized revenue at about $50 billion, roughly $20 billion below figures in circulation. AMD has a multi-gigawatt MI450 deal with OpenAI, so its exposure is more concentrated, and it fell more than NVIDIA this week.
TSMC (TSM): Q3 net profit was NT$763.1 billion, up about 69% YoY, and full-year revenue growth guidance was raised to about 44% in US dollar terms. Gross margin was 66.4%, down 1.3 percentage points from the prior quarter.
Intel (INTC): Up more than 150% this year but still 33% below its 52-week high. It fell 8.91% this week, the most of the five.
Tesla (TSLA): Q3 deliveries were 486,532 vehicles, down 2.1% YoY but above the consensus of about 462,000. Volume on 10/15 was only 0.67x its recent average, with money waiting for earnings on 10/21.
Stock Focus: TSMC and AMD
TSMC: record earnings, yet the stock fell 6.85%. This was TSMC's sixth straight quarter of record net profit, and management said the gap between demand and supply is "still quite big." Yet the stock fell 6.85% this week, and volume on earnings day was 1.84x its recent average. The reason is in the details: the early 2nm ramp diluted gross margin, and full-year capex was kept at $60 billion to $64 billion. Q4 revenue guidance is $52.3 billion to $54.3 billion, about 14% sequential growth at the midpoint. When you read an earnings report, start with three things: did revenue beat, which way are margins heading, and what is next quarter's guidance. This time the first and third were solid, the second moved lower, and the market reacted to the second first.
AMD: up 162.53% this year, down 7.54% this week. Most of AMD's gain this year has come from AI accelerator orders, and its MI450 deal with OpenAI is the largest piece, which makes it especially sensitive to OpenAI's revenue numbers. On 10/8 the FT reported annualized revenue about $20 billion below figures in circulation; Bloomberg then reported that OpenAI expects at least $70 billion in annualized revenue by year-end. The two reports use different bases, and the market is still digesting them. The stock sits at 80% of its 52-week range, about 15% below its high. Next earnings are on 11/3.
This Week's Discussion: Not Every Decline Is the Same
Volume ratio = the day's volume ÷ the recent average volume. This week these stocks all fell between 5% and 9%, but their volume ratios differed widely: TSMC was 1.84x on earnings day, Intel 1.31x, NVIDIA 1.00x and Tesla only 0.67x.
A decline on heavy volume means someone is actively repositioning, usually tied to a specific event. A decline on light volume looks more like waiting, with buyers and sellers both holding out for the next piece of news. If you read volume alongside the price move, you will see more clearly whether a down day means "someone is selling" or "no one is buying."
Key Dates Next Week
Date | Event | What to watch |
10/19 (Mon) | China Q3 GDP | Released with September industrial output and retail sales; a read on sentiment for commodities and Asian tech |
10/20 (Tue) | Netflix (NFLX) earnings after the close | Subscription revenue beyond member counts, and progress in advertising |
10/21 (Wed) | Tesla (TSLA) and Texas Instruments (TXN) earnings after the close | Tesla: auto gross margin and energy storage. TI's guidance is often read as a gauge of analog chip demand |
10/22 (Thu) | US initial jobless claims | Is the job market cooling after the rate hike? |
10/23 (Fri) | US October S&P Global flash PMI | Are manufacturing and services slowing under high rates? |
The following week, the Fed meets on 10/27–28. Earnings and data release dates are subject to official announcements.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q1: What was September CPI, and why did the market react so strongly?
September CPI was up 3.7% YoY, above August's 3.4%, and up 0.6% on the month. PPI then rose 1.3% on the month the next day. Together, the two reports brought hike bets back, and richly valued chip stocks came under pressure first.
Q2: Will the Fed hike again in October?
No one can say for sure. The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% on 9/16, and after the CPI print one analyst said markets were pricing close to even odds of another October hike. The answer comes at the 10/27–28 meeting.
Q3: Why do chip stocks fall more than the broader market when hike expectations rise?
Chip valuations rest on earnings far in the future, and the higher rates go, the less those earnings are worth today. AI data centers are also largely financed with debt, so higher borrowing costs feed directly into the pace of expansion. This week the Nasdaq fell 2.39% and the S&P 500 fell 0.86%.
Q4: TSMC posted record earnings, so why did the stock fall?
Revenue and next-quarter guidance were both solid, but gross margin fell 1.3 percentage points from the prior quarter to 66.4%, mainly because of the early 2nm ramp. The market reacted to margins first, and the stock fell 6.85% this week.
Q5: How is the volume ratio calculated, and how should I read it?
Volume ratio = the day's volume ÷ the recent average volume. Above 1x means busier than usual, and a decline on heavy volume is usually driven by a specific event. Below 1x means quieter than usual, and a decline on light volume looks more like waiting. This week Tesla was only 0.67x, while TSMC was 1.84x on earnings day.
Disclaimer: This article is compiled and written by the MEXC RealStocks team. The data in this article is based on the closing of the US stock market on October 15, 2026. Wk = 10/9 close to 10/15 close (4 trading days); YTD = 2025/12/31 close to 10/15 close; 52-wk position = (price − 52-week low) ÷ (52-week high − 52-week low) × 100%. The content is a compilation of public market information, and individual stocks are publicly discussed targets, which do not represent the recommendation or opinion of MEXC and do not constitute any investment advice. Institutional views are cited from public reports; they are third-party opinions only and do not represent MEXC's position. More US stock content: @MEXC | @Alpha_MEXC | @MEXC_Research
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